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Global Forecasts for Humanitarians in 2017

Focusing on travel, accommodation and threats

For humanitarians, two years are never the same. Of course, projects will change, months-long work will be finished, but the way humanitarians live, travel and the threats they face, are continuously developing, day by day.

Global Forecasts for Air Fares Look Favorable

To get a glimpse on which changes we can expect for this year, Advito constructed an industry forecast for 2017. When we look at global predictions, it is expected that airlines will continue to add or maintain capacity. The low oil prices, which airlines have enjoyed since the start of 2015, means airlines can be profitable, even when aircraft are not fully occupied.

Extra capacity means fares won’t rise in most cases, and where competition is fierce, they’ll even drop. Additionally, it will limit price increases in any market where demand is aggressively growing. Advito expects global business class fares to rise by just 1 percent in 2017, while economy fares will stay the same.

Hotel rates around the world will increase by 1 to 3 percent the coming year. In North America and the Southwest Pacific, the rates will rise due to insufficient supply. Also, travelers to the Middle East will see higher hotel expenses because of high demand. Africa and Europe will experience the lowest rate growth, reflecting the soft demand in those region

In the past one to two years, Europe has seen a succession of seemingly random acts of terrorism in cities like Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and Nice. Even smaller towns like Rouen have been affected. These incidents are difficult to predict and prevent because they're usually committed by an individual or a small group.

Travel managers are in the stressful position to make incredibly hard decisions about which incidents are grave enough to warrant action. This process is increasingly difficult with the heightened media attention on every attack. Even small incidents, with possibly no link to terrorism whatsoever, receive global coverage. Desensitization is a possible resulting risk, which might delay response to the next incident. Advito's experts expect 2017 to follow the same pattern as 2016, which means everyone must remain upmost-vigilant.

Another huge risk issue for humanitarian travelers is health. The Zika virus has dominated headlines the previous year, mainly because of its association with the 2016 Olympic Games in Brazil. However, it is likely to affect a relatively small proportion of the traveling humanitarians. Companies with a lot of travel to or from Latin America do need to take necessary precautions, though. But, a disease like Ebola remains a far greater risk.

Are you interested in more information on trends in traveling, accommodation or security risks? Do not hesitate to contact us should you require up-to-date information. We are glad to provide the necessary assistance from any of our 17 offices around the world. Contact a local Raptim office through our quick address locator in case you have any questions.